Forecasting Insights
Key Materials
Nov. 15, 2023 | 2024 LTO Preliminary Update, Decarbonization Scenario Modelling Dashboard, Preliminary Datafile posted
Nov. 8, 2023 | AESO Preliminary CER Submission
Sept. 27, 2023 | LTO Resource Adequacy CER Assessment
2024 Updated Long-Term Outlook Preliminary Results Stakeholder Engagement Release
Background
In view of evolving carbon policies and regulations impacting the development of a carbon-neutral, reliable and affordable grid, the AESO re-evaluated the scenarios in the Long-Term Outlook. This impacts both the Long-Term Outlook and the Long-Term Transmission Plan.
Presentation Purpose and objectives
The purpose of the Information update is to engage stakeholders in a discussion of the AESO’s draft modelling around the updated Long-Term Outlook Preliminary Results, provide clarification and share next steps and timing.
Specific session objectives include:
- Present the updated preliminary base case modelling results
- Provide clarification around current assumptions and scenario framework
- Present detailed graphical power BI interface and supporting data file
- Seek another round of stakeholder written feedback before the AESO moves forward with scenario analysis and finalizes it’s modelling and analysis
Clean Electricity Regulations
AESO Submission for the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Draft Clean Electricity Regulation
The AESO appreciated the opportunity to comment on the current preliminary framework of the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER).
The AESO has a public interest mandate to ensure the safe, reliable, economic operation of the Alberta electricity system. The AESO’s core accountabilities include planning and managing operation of the grid 24 hours a day, ensuring Albertans have power when they need it; facilitating Alberta’s competitive electricity market; planning the future of the transmission system and its infrastructure; and ensuring generators and large power consumers can connect to the system in a safe and reliable manner.
Given its broad-based accountabilities, the AESO is uniquely positioned to assess the strength, stability, and reliability of Alberta’s power system through time. Our submission reflects this unique perspective and the shared interest of a safe, reliable, and economic operation of the Alberta electrical system, now and in the future.
Assessment
The AESO has published a revised 2023 Long-Term Outlook (LTO) Resource Adequacy Assessment modelling the proposed parameters of the draft Clean Electricity Regulations (CER).
The results of the assessment indicate that the CER creates significant resource adequacy risk when the CER comes into effect in 2035.
Re-Evaluating Scenarios in 2023 Long-Term Outlook
August 16, 2023 | Notice to Stakeholders: In view of evolving carbon policies and regulations impacting the development of a carbon-neutral, reliable and affordable grid, the AESO is re-evaluating the scenarios in the 2023 Long-Term Outlook. This impacts both the Long-Term Outlook and the Long-Term Transmission Plan. Therefore, the AESO is deferring the Long-Term Outlook to a later date when more information on any changes to the scenarios and process will be shared.
Introduction
The transformation of the Alberta electric sector continues at an exponential pace. To support an optimal path and approach that will enhance the quality of life for Albertans, the AESO will continue to provide insights to stakeholders to enable quality decisions to be proactively made in an informed manner based on industry knowledge, facts, data and analytics. As trusted partners, we proactively and collaboratively obtain, organize, analyze, and synthesize relevant data, knowledge, and industry intelligence to create and clearly communicate value-added insights. In this theme, we are excited to launch the engagement on the latest iteration of the Long-Term Outlook.
Long-Term Outlook Purpose
The Long-term Outlook (LTO) is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to other AESO functions. These include providing the base scenario for the Long-term Transmission Plan, transmission system planning studies for Needs Identification Documents (NIDs) and connection projects, the ISO tariff, and market assessments. The LTO also informs ongoing energy-only market evaluations, system flexibility and net-demand variability assessments, long-term resource adequacy analyses, policy and regulatory (including carbon emission policies) analyses, as well as other engineering and/or market reports. The AESO publishes a LTO every two years with updates as necessary. The latest iteration of the LTO will look to build on and integrate learnings from our 2022 Net Zero Emissions Pathways report as well previous iterations of the Long-term Outlook, the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow.
The LTO will be grounded in market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, core economic sectors, and cost-competitive advantage of existing supply mix based on decarbonization-oriented policies. Additionally, further decarbonization of the supply mix, electrification of high-emitting sectors, and energy efficiency improvements will also be explored as part of the LTO scenarios. Carbon pricing and regulation, technological innovations, and new ways to generate, store and consume electricity as well as support from various levels of government around federal zero-emission vehicle credits and mandates, carbon capture, and other low emission technology tax treatment are anticipated to continue to grow and support the energy transition, which will drive additional emissions reductions economy wide.
