Forecasting Insights


The transformation of the Alberta electric sector continues at an exponential pace. To support an optimal path and approach that will enhance the quality of life for Albertans, the AESO will continue to provide insights to stakeholders to enable quality decisions to be proactively made in an informed manner based on industry knowledge, facts, data and analytics. As trusted partners, we proactively and collaboratively obtain, organize, analyze, and synthesize relevant data, knowledge, and industry intelligence to create and clearly communicate value-added insights. In this theme, we are excited to launch the engagement on the latest (2023) iteration of the Long-Term Outlook.

Long-Term Outlook Purpose

The Long-term Outlook (LTO) is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to other AESO functions. These include providing the base scenario for the Long-term Transmission Plan, transmission system planning studies for Needs Identification Documents (NIDs) and connection projects, the ISO tariff, and market assessments. The LTO also informs ongoing energy-only market evaluations, system flexibility and net-demand variability assessments, long-term resource adequacy analyses, policy and regulatory (including carbon emission policies) analyses, as well as other engineering and/or market reports. The AESO publishes a LTO every two years with updates as necessary. The latest (2023) iteration of the LTO will look to build on and integrate learnings from our 2022 Net Zero Emissions Pathways report as well previous iterations of the Long-term Outlook, the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow.

The 2023 LTO will be grounded in market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, core economic sectors, and cost-competitive advantage of existing supply mix based on decarbonization-oriented policies. Additionally, further decarbonization of the supply mix, electrification of high-emitting sectors, and energy efficiency improvements will also be explored as part of the 2023 LTO scenarios. Carbon pricing and regulation, technological innovations, and new ways to generate, store and consume electricity as well as support from various levels of government around federal zero-emission vehicle credits and mandates, carbon capture, and other low emission technology tax treatment are anticipated to continue to grow and support the energy transition, which will drive additional emissions reductions economy wide.




The transformation of the Alberta electric sector continues at an exponential pace. To support an optimal path and approach that will enhance the quality of life for Albertans, the AESO will continue to provide insights to stakeholders to enable quality decisions to be proactively made in an informed manner based on industry knowledge, facts, data and analytics. As trusted partners, we proactively and collaboratively obtain, organize, analyze, and synthesize relevant data, knowledge, and industry intelligence to create and clearly communicate value-added insights. In this theme, we are excited to launch the engagement on the latest (2023) iteration of the Long-Term Outlook.

Long-Term Outlook Purpose

The Long-term Outlook (LTO) is the AESO’s forecast of Alberta load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to other AESO functions. These include providing the base scenario for the Long-term Transmission Plan, transmission system planning studies for Needs Identification Documents (NIDs) and connection projects, the ISO tariff, and market assessments. The LTO also informs ongoing energy-only market evaluations, system flexibility and net-demand variability assessments, long-term resource adequacy analyses, policy and regulatory (including carbon emission policies) analyses, as well as other engineering and/or market reports. The AESO publishes a LTO every two years with updates as necessary. The latest (2023) iteration of the LTO will look to build on and integrate learnings from our 2022 Net Zero Emissions Pathways report as well previous iterations of the Long-term Outlook, the AESO 2021 Technology Forward Publication and the AESO Technology Summit 2021 – Power Tomorrow.

The 2023 LTO will be grounded in market fundamentals including demographics and employment, existing industrial energy needs, core economic sectors, and cost-competitive advantage of existing supply mix based on decarbonization-oriented policies. Additionally, further decarbonization of the supply mix, electrification of high-emitting sectors, and energy efficiency improvements will also be explored as part of the 2023 LTO scenarios. Carbon pricing and regulation, technological innovations, and new ways to generate, store and consume electricity as well as support from various levels of government around federal zero-emission vehicle credits and mandates, carbon capture, and other low emission technology tax treatment are anticipated to continue to grow and support the energy transition, which will drive additional emissions reductions economy wide.



  • Industry & Policy Updates


    20 Dec 2022

    The IESO recently released its Pathways to Decarbonization and 2022 Annual Planning Outlook.

    The IESO's Pathways to Decarbonization report finds that Ontario can begin moving toward a decarbonized grid starting with a moratorium on new gas generation in 2027 as long as sufficient non-emitting supply is in place to meet growing electricity demand. By 2035, the system could be less reliant on the natural gas fleet, lowering emissions by 60 per cent below the IESO forecasts for that year.

    The IESO's 2022 Annual Planning Outlook forecasts electricity demand will increase almost two per cent annually over the next two decades, driven by economic growth and electrification. The report reaffirms the IESO’s efforts to secure new supply and helps sets the stage for additional procurements that could integrate more non-emitting supply into the grid.



  • Scope & Input Assumptions Written Consultation | Jan. 3-24, 2023

    CLOSED: This discussion has concluded.

    Purpose

    The purpose of this initial written consultation is to seek feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives as it relates to the proposed scope and input assumptions of the 2023 Long-term Outlook (LTO) analysis.

    Stakeholder comments

    We value stakeholder feedback, and we thank you for sharing your perspectives with us. View all stakeholder comments received in the Stakeholder Submissions section.

    Scope and input assumptions materials

    Can be found under the AESO materials section.

  • Lifecycle Activities | January 2023 to October 2023

    Scope & Input Assumptions Written Consultation | Jan. 5-20, 2023

    Purpose

    The purpose of this initial written consultation is to seek feedback from interested stakeholders on their perspectives as it relates to the proposed scope and input assumptions of the 2023 LTO analysis.


    Planned Activities | 2023

    Targets

    • Seek feedback on proposed scope and input assumptions. (January)
    • Post written stakeholder feedback received. (January)
    • Stakeholder feedback gathered will be reviewed and considered as the AESO develops further analysis. Based on this review, the AESO will provide a summary directional update. (February)
    • AESO conducts further analysis. (January-May)
    • Stakeholder session to present and seek feedback on preliminary modelling results. (May/June)
    • Seek additional round of stakeholder written feedback before the AESO finalizes its modelling and analysis. (May/June)
    • Post written stakeholder feedback received. (June/July)
    • Stakeholder feedback gathered will be reviewed and considered as the AESO finalizes its modelling and analysis. Based on this review, the AESO will provide a summary directional update. (July/August)
    • AESO finalizes modeling and analysis (June-October)
    • Publish final written report. (October)
    • Stakeholder session to present 2023 Long-term Outlook and provide next steps. (October)
Page last updated: 24 Mar 2023, 01:36 PM